亚洲财富故事：中国

[2003.12.30][China]Speaking out

Wealth in Asia: China
亚洲财富故事：中国

Speaking out  大声疾呼

Dec 30th 2003 | BEIJING AND XUSHUI
From The Economist print edition

Businessmen are starting to challenge the authorities
商人们开始挑战政府的权威

CHINA'S first communist leaders once declared that Xushui county in the northern Chinese plain would be a trailblazer in the country's progress from socialism to full communism. They ordered Xushui to complete the transition in just five years, by 1963, but the experiment, part of the Great Leap Forward, ended in famine and economic ruin. Today Xushui is awash with capitalism, with a myriad of privately-run restaurants (many of them specialising in donkey-meat, for which the county is famous) and an agricultural conglomerate that ranks as one of the biggest private enterprises in China. All the same, Sun Dawu, the conglomerate's millionaire owner, has learnt the hard way that private businessmen like him must still tread a careful line.
中国首任***领导人曾经宣布，徐水，这个位于华北平原的县城，做为社会主义向共产主义过渡的“试点”，过渡期计划为5年，但到了1963年，这项实验，作为“大跃进”的一部分，结束在饥饿和经济崩溃之中。如今的徐水沐浴在资本主义之中，充斥着各式花样的私营饭店（很多经营着当地特产驴肉）和国内最大的农业集团公司。同时，作为集团的拥有者，百万富翁孙大午，渐渐懂得了象他这样的私营企业家处境仍很艰难，处事仍需小心。

In May 2003 Mr Sun received a telephone call from a friend saying the newly-appointed Communist Party secretary of Xushui wanted to have lunch with him at a hotel in the county town. When Mr Sun arrived he was arrested by plain-clothed police. He was tried by a county court in October, and convicted of illegally accepting $1.6m in deposits from local residents.
03年5月，孙接到朋友电话，说是新上任的县委书记想要和他在县里一家宾馆吃饭。谁知一到便遭便衣警察逮捕。10月在县法庭开庭审理，指控他的罪名是在当地非法集资1百60万美元。

Mr Sun's real sin had been to stand up for his business. The troubles faced by a deposit-taking scheme run by his Dawu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group highlight the difficulties many private businesses face raising funds from state-owned banks. The party claims to encourage private business these days, but the banking system is heavily biased in favour of state-owned enterprises. In a speech at the Beijing Institute of Technology a few weeks before his arrest, Mr Sun complained that the system forced many private businesses to take either what he called the “red road” (red denoting the mandarinate since the time of the Qing dynasty) of bribing officials for loans and other benefits, or the illicit “black road” of producing fake or shoddy goods. At Peking University in March, Mr Sun boldly accused rural state-owned banks and credit cooperatives of “financial oppression”, with lenders demanding kickbacks worth 10% to 15% of loans.
孙的罪名来自于他所开展的业务。大午农牧集团的集资方案所引起的麻烦显示出私营企业从国有银行中申请贷款仍很艰难。政府虽然鼓励私营企业的发展，但银行的贷款仍然倾向于国有企业。在被逮捕的几周前，孙大午在北京科技研究所的一次演讲中，抱怨现今体制使得民营企业，要么走一条他所称的“红道”：（从清朝就有的“红顶商人”），通过贿赂官员获取贷款及其他利益，另一条就是非法的“黑道”：制假贩假。在3月北京大学的一次演讲中，孙大胆谴责了农村国有银行和信用社的官员，揭露出索要回扣竟占贷款总额10到15%，称其为“金融压迫”。

Many private businesspeople in China make such complaints in private. But by delivering his speech in universities (where the authorities are still likely to be haunted by memories of the student-led protests of 1989), Mr Sun strayed beyond the line of acceptable behaviour in the eyes of party officials. “Do you think Peking University is like your home where you can say what you want?” asked one of Mr Sun's police interrogators, he says.
在私下，许多中国的私营业主也有过类似的抱怨。但在大学（当局仍然对89年学生领导的运动心有余悸）里发表如此的言论显然超越了当局所能容忍的底线。“你把北京大学当作你自己家啦，想说什么就说什么啊”孙引述一名审讯他的警察的话。

For this is exactly the sort of thing the party hates: a rich entrepreneur who is not content simply to make money and accept corruption in government. In the aftermath of 1989, the party heaped particular abuse on Wan Runnan, a leading businessman who sided with the demonstrators and subsequently fled the country. Since then, most of China's fast-growing ranks of rich businessmen have preferred to play things safe.
这正是当局所痛恨的一类事情：一个富有的企业家不甘心老实赚钱和接受政府中的腐败行为。89事件后，当局对万润南严惩不怠，万是支持运动的一名著名商人，随后因而流亡海外。从那以后，绝大多数新富商人都变得小心行事了。

Yet at Mr Sun's trial something remarkable happened. The judge let him off with only a three-year suspended sentence and a fine of $12,000. Lobbying on his behalf by Chinese intellectuals may have helped. Even the state-controlled newspapers were favourable towards him, not by order of the party but because the journalists sympathised with him.
但对孙的审判案件出现了转机，法院只判了他三年缓刑和罚款1万2千美元。显然，知识界的声援起到了一定的作用。甚至国家媒体也对倾向于他，看来不是来自官方指示而是记者出于对他的同情。

Such independence is growing as the Chinese media become less dependent on government subsidies. The sweeping leadership changes since late 2002 may have also played a part. The new leaders are trying to appear more in tune with the downtrodden. Imprisoning a personality who is also known for articulating the grievances of peasants would not help them.
如此独立的声音出现显示出政府对舆论的控制渐渐放松，02年后期领导层的变更也有一定影响。新领导人要表现出“亲民”形象，把这样一个被看作是农民代言人抓起来的做法对他们显然是不利的。

Since his release, Mr Sun has become a bit more wary. He has turned down invitations to give speeches and devoted more time to entertaining local officials. In recent months Dawu has been setting up a Communist Party committee, a feature common to large enterprises in China but a first for Dawu. And Mr Sun is scaling down his deposit-taking operation, restricting it now to company workers.
孙在获释后变得比以前小心了。他拒绝了演讲的邀请，而花更多的时间与当地官员进行应酬。近期大午集团破天荒地建立了党支部，这通常只有在中国的大公司才有的现象。孙也将吸收存款控制在公司内部的员工之间。

But will all this help Mr Sun at last get his bank loan? About that he remains doubtful. He says he has been told he can apply for one in 2004, but has been given no indication whether it will be successful.
但这能否对获得贷款有所帮助，孙仍持怀疑态度。他被告之，可在04年申请贷款，能否得到批准就不得而知了。

Mr Sun reckons it will take months to repair the damage inflicted on his business by his six-month internment. But he says he has received considerable support from other leading private businessmen around China, including letters from 30-40 big companies. Liu Chuanzhi, chairman of Legend, China's biggest computer-maker, which is listed in Hong Kong, publicly congratulated him on his release. Mr Sun says entrepreneurs tell him that his remarks reflect their own “hidden sufferings”.
孙估计要花几个月的时间才能恢复六个月的监禁所造成的损失。但他得到了来自中国其他著名私营企业家的支持，其中包括30到40个大公司的来函。柳传志，中国最大电脑制造公司（在香港上市）联想的总裁，公开对他的获释表示欢迎。孙说私营业主们告诉他，他的言论反映了他们目前所承受的“隐性压力”。

For all his troubles, Mr Sun still has ambitious plans. He already runs primary and secondary schools, and a small hospital, which he says are profitable. He wants to add a university in the next two or three years, as well as a park dedicated to famous world figures (he offers Abraham Lincoln and Jesus as examples). But he may not be speaking out as much. “There are many Sun Dawus in China. But they work, they don't speak.” For now.
虽受到打击，孙仍有其远大计划。目前他已拥有一所小学，一所中学和一家小型医院，据他说都是盈利的，但还想在2到3年内建立一所大学，同时建立以一个著名人物（他举例说亚伯拉汉·林肯或是耶稣）命名的公园。但没有透露详情。“现在在中国有许多的孙大午，但他们都不说了”，至少从现在是这样。

Copyright ? 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

还是关心关于中国方面的事情，最近相关好象报道不多，只好翻译一篇旧闻。

[2006.8.24] Jiang stirs again

Jiang stirs again
江泽民又出来了

Aug 24th 2006 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

China's former leader is not forgotten, and not quite gone
中国前领导人并没有被遗忘，更没有离开

ON LEAVING the last of his posts in 2004, Jiang Zemin, China's former president, could point to two big achievements. First, he shepherded China through 15 years of rapid economic growth without sacrificing stability, and for that he must share the plaudits with many colleagues. But the credit for his second achievement, the first orderly transfer of power in China's Communist era, goes to him alone. Or it would, were it not for the awkward theory, held by many analysts, that he was more or less forced to quit.
中国前国家主席江泽民，在2004年离任时，有两项重大成就， 其一，他带领中国稳定地走过了十五年的经济快速增长，正因此，他的领导集体广受好评。然而，他的第二项成就可以说是，在中国***时代首次和平的权力交接是由他开始的。倘若这种观点不会令人窘迫的话，许多分析人士认为，江泽民的下台或多或少是被迫的。

Now, after keeping fairly quiet for the past two years, Mr Jiang has again stepped into the spotlight with a pair of new publications. One work is a travelogue documenting the many official overseas trips he took. The other is a three-volume set of his “Selected Works”, which went on sale on August 10th, a week before his 80th birthday. Its release puts him in the company of Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong as a leader deemed worthy of the honour. State media urged careful study of the opus and carried gushing, if improbable, reports of frenzied queues at bookstores as far afield as Tibet.
如今，沉寂了两年之后的江泽民带着他的两套新著复出，引起极大关注。这两套新书其一为记录江泽民多次海外出访的旅行见闻讲演集，另外一套则是三卷本的《江泽民选集》，选集在江泽民80岁生日的前一周，8月10号开始销售。该选集的发行使江泽民与邓小平、毛泽东并列，成为了广受尊荣的领导人。官方媒体敦促对选集认真学习，还极其热情的大量报道了即使是在遥远的西藏，书店中总有热情的读者排着长队。

All the fuss could simply be a way for the new president, Hu Jintao, to heap praise on the old man as he prods him deeper into retirement. However Mr Jiang's re-appearance comes at a time when machinations over the next leadership change are just getting under way. China is due to hold its 17th Communist Party Congress late next year. Mr Hu would not be expected to step down until the following one, in 2012, but the 2007 congress is where the party will begin the work of anointing a successor. If Mr Jiang has any hopes of helping his political allies, and hence of prolonging his own influence, this would be the time to re-assert himself. But if he also wishes to be thought of as China's first modern leader to retire gracefully, he needs to tread carefully.
所有这些举动都只是新任主席胡锦涛为促进江泽民的进一步引退，对这位老人的大加赞扬。然而，江泽民的复出却是在对下届领导权的更替进行图谋策划的时候。中国明年将举行第十七次党代表大会。在2012年的继任者以前，胡锦涛是不会下台的，但2007年的代表大会就是要为他指定一个继任者。如果江泽民希望帮助他的政治团队，并进而扩大他自己的影响，那么，现在正是他再次表现自己权威的机会。但是，如果他还指望被认为是中国首位优雅退位的现代领导人，他可就需要三思而行了。

[2006.08.17] [Finance & Economics] [China's currency] Ups and Downs

China's currency
中国通货
Ups and downs
升贬沉浮
Aug 17th 2006
From The Economist print edition

Volatility, of sorts, creeps into the yuan-dollar exchange rate
各种易变因素潜入人民币美元汇率

IF THE euro, say, rises by 0.2% against the dollar, yen or Swiss franc one day and falls by almost as much the next, no one pays much attention. But such oscillations in the value of the yuan against the dollar are rare. The Chinese currency's 0.28% fall on August 15th was its biggest in a day since China revalued the yuan in July 2005. The next day it gained 0.24% at one point, before closing 0.16% up; only three times has it risen by more in a day.

若一天之间，欧元对美元、日元或者瑞士法郎增长0.2％，翌日几又回跌，无人多睬。然人民币相对美元价格如此振荡却甚罕。自从2005年7月人民币重新估价以来，8月15日0.28％的实属单日跌幅之最。翌日一度回升0.24％然后收于0.16％增幅；单日大于此涨幅的仅有三次。

These jumps have not come entirely out of the blue. Over the past few months, the yuan's exchange rate has been getting more volatile, by its own modest standards. Since February or March, notes Stephen Jen, of Morgan Stanley, the yuan's deviations from the average of bid and ask rates have become markedly larger (see chart), without ever testing the maximum permitted each day. (The rate is allowed to vary by 0.3% either side of a parity set daily by China's central bank.)

这些暴涨并不完全是意料之外。刚刚过去的几个月里，人民币汇率在适度范围内已变得更加易于波动。打2月或者3月起，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)任永力(Stephen Jen)注意到，甚至毋庸测寻每日最大允许值，人民币竞价交易和询价交易的平均偏差已经明显过大（参看图表）。（中国央行设定的上下幅度为0.3％）

 图片附件: [图表1] CFN225.gif (2006-8-18 10:33, 9.03 K)

This being China, it is unlikely that the increase in volatility is entirely accidental. Simon Derrick, of the Bank of New York, thinks that remarks earlier this month by Wu Xiaoling, vice-governor of the central bank, now look “like a clear statement of intent”. Chinese firms, said Ms Wu, should hedge their currency risk using derivatives, as foreign companies do.

这就是中国，完全不可料的增长波动是没有可能的。纽约银行Simon Derrick认为本月初央行副行长吴晓灵的评论现在看来“像是真实的意思表示”。吴女士称，中国企业应该像外国公司那样采用衍生工具对冲货币风险。

Another possibility is that the authorities may have wanted to show speculators as well as Chinese firms that the currency is not a one-way bet. And Mr Jen suggests that the yuan's fall on August 15th may have been intended to help state enterprises or banks with dollars to sell.

另一个可能性是，当局也许希望投机者还有中国公司明白货币并非单向赌博。Jen先生亦暗示，8月15人民币贬值也可能是帮助持有美元的国有企业或银行抛售。

The big question, though, is whether extra variability heralds a faster overall rate of appreciation of the yuan—for instance, by letting it edge towards the top of its trading band more often. From 8.11 to the dollar after revaluation, it has risen only to around 8.00. A stronger yuan may be in China's interest, by helping to cool its boiling economy. However, the Chinese are in no hurry—especially, perhaps, when being pressed by American politicians to go much faster. It may be pure coincidence that the yuan's biggest fall came just after Henry Paulson, the American treasury secretary, said that the Chinese needed “to show much more flexibility” on the currency. Then again, it may not be.

然则最大的疑问是，是否更大的波动预示着整体上人民币将更快地增值，譬如允许人民币更频繁地朝交易波幅的峰值移动。重新估价后人民币对美元升幅也仅只从8.11涨到8.00左右。人民币更坚挺也许有利于中国，有助于抑止经济过热。可是，中方并不操之过急，特别是在美国政客的压制下。美国财长Henry Paulson宣扬的中方需要更灵活的货币政策的言论，人民币的最大跌幅紧随其后，也许仅仅是偶合，亦或非也。

The Americans are sure to keep up the pressure. Mr Paulson is due to visit China after the IMF meetings in Singapore next month. And Charles Schumer and Lindsay Graham, two senators, have said that they will revive a bill threatening tariffs of 27.5% on imports from China unless there are signs that it will give way over the yuan. The senators' bill is unlikely to find its way on to the statute book, but is a worrying sign all the same.

美方定会继续施压。下月国际货币基金组织新加坡会议后，届时保尔森先生将访问中国。并且参议员Charles Schumer及Lindsay Graham已声称会重新提案征收中国产品27.5％的威胁性关税，除非有迹象表明中方将放宽人民币政策。虽然参议员提案不大可能影响立法，仍然是令人担忧的征兆。

Some observers urge calm. China, says David Bloom, of HSBC, is moving towards a flexible currency; remember, he adds, that only in the late 1970s did Western countries become fully flexible and convertible. His bank puts weight on a recent statement by Fan Gang, an academic member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, that China could cope with an annual appreciation of 5%. That's slower than America would like—but about as fast as it can expect.

一些观察家敦促（美国）保持冷静。汇丰银行的David Bloom称，中国正在朝灵活的货币制度改变，他还补充说，要知道西方国家也不过是在20世纪70年代末期才实现真正的浮动和可兑换。他所在的银行很看重中国央行货币政策委员会一位学术委员樊刚近期的评论：中国只能应付年升值5％。这不及美国的要求，但也许是它所能期待的最快涨幅了。

Copyright ? 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

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就Allen 提出的问题所做的补充：（谢谢Allen的宝贵意见，悉数采纳）

1. 空穴来风的意思请参考：“空穴来风”辨，http://www.pep.com.cn/200406/ca447208.htm
2. one way bet的一些例证：主题：人民币汇率与国际收支双顺差http://www.macrochina.com.cn/reuters.htm
    Gaming sector is a one way bet, says Evil Knievil，http://personalfinance.iii.co.uk... ;article_id=1574418
    Bonds no longer one-way bet,http://www.thehindubusinessline. ... 002042401821000.htm
    Oracle consolidation is ‘one-way bet’,http://www.theregister.co.uk/200... tion_is_oneway_bet/
2006.07.08]China's Confucius Institutes:Selling the sage of Qufu

China's Confucius Institutes
中国孔子研究会

Selling the sage of Qufu
推销曲阜孔圣人

Jul 6th 2006 | TOKYO
From The Economist print edition

China's answer to the Alliance Fran?aise
中国对法语联盟的回应

THE old man would surely be proud. This week some 300 representatives, from 35 different countries, gathered in Beijing's Great Hall of the People for the first-ever Confucius Institute conference. This was no philosophical pow-wow, but the world's largest-ever conference on teaching Chinese as a foreign language. Confucius Institutes are China's answer to the Alliance Fran?aise, Germany's Goethe Institut and the British Council, and officials hope they will help meet a growing global demand for Chineselanguage education.
这周有来自35个国家的大约300名代表参加了在北京人民大会堂举行的第一届“孔子研究会”大会，孔子他老人家也应该为此而骄傲了吧！这次空前的**不是为哲学，而是为汉语的外语教学。作为对法盟、德国歌德研究会和英国文化委员会的回应，官方希望孔子研究会能满足世界对汉语教育的需求。

Confucius Institutes have got off to a roaring start. The first was established in Tashkent in Uzbekistan in June 2004, the 75th in Cracow in Poland exactly two years later. No other Chinese international franchise has done as well. Officially, they are overseen by Hanban, the agency charged by the Education Ministry with promoting the teaching of Chinese overseas. But Hanban's staff of only around 50 can barely cope with the volume of applications, on top of its other duties which include administering Hanyu Shuipin Kaoshi, the standard test of proficiency in Chinese.
从2004年7月第一个孔子研究会在乌兹别克的塔什干成立，到两年后第75个孔子研究会在波兰的克拉科成立，孔子研究会迎来了开门红。从来没有中国其他的国际机构做的如此出色。但在组织上，孔子研究会却被教育部管辖的汉班所监督。而同样为促进对外汉语教育设立的汉班只有50个，除了难以完成其他诸如汉语言能力标准考试的职责外，更难以满足汉语教育的大量需求。

So Hanban has let the network grow organically. One key to its success has been the use of joint ventures. The institutes are not run by Hanban, but by partnerships between Chinese universities and local universities in the host country. The host university takes the responsibility for housing the institute; its Chinese partner provides the teaching staff and materials.
因此，汉班只好让孔子研究会自己而为，不再自己掌控，而是由主办国家的当地大学和中国的大学共同管理，由主办学校提供场所，中国提供师资。其中成功的关键在于合作。

A second advantage is the institutes' ability to adapt to local demands, rather than following a set curriculum. Thus, in Nairobi, you can learn how to make Tianjin dumplings, while in Singapore you can sign up for a 14-day study tour of the sage's hometown, Qufu, in Shandong province.
另一个好处在于能满足当地的不同需求，而不必用一个固定的课表。因此，在奈洛比你可以学到如何做天津包子，在新加坡你可以参加曲阜（孔圣人故乡，在山东）14日游。

Hanban claims that the primary role of the Confucius Institutes is to teach Chinese, but their name is also evocative of China's former influence in Asia, and its growing presence now. Despite the iciness of official relations between China and Japan, universities there are falling over each other to set up the next institute. Already there are four, the most in any Asian country; the number is set to double by the end of the year. Even in the 21st century, Confucius is proving to be China's best ambassador.
汉班声称，孔子研究会的最初目的是汉语教学，但是它的名字也同时宣传了中国在亚洲的早期影响，并且这种作用开始发挥。尽管中日政治冷淡，大学之间却迫不及待的要建立孔子研究会。尽管日本已有四个孔子研究会，位居亚洲第一，但是到本年年底，数目还将加倍。即使到了21世纪，孔夫子仍然被证明是中国最出色的外交大使。

[2006.7.01]Infectious disease in China:Sanitising the record

[2006.7.01]Asia
Infectious disease in China:Sanitising the record
传染病在中国： 洗净记录
Jun 29th 2006 | JIUXIAN
From The Economist print edition
China is not helping as it should
中国仍然不够合作

  
    IN CHINA'S battle against infectious diseases of global concern,from bird flu to foot-and-mouth, its Agriculture Ministry clearly has a crucial role to play. But getting the ministry's powerful and secretive bureaucracy to co-operate in the fight against disease is quite a struggle.
    从禽流感到口蹄疫，在中国与有国际性影响的传染病的斗争中，农业部扮演着举足轻重的角色。但要让这个掌握实权而又行事隐秘的官僚机构通力合作对抗疾病却又颇费周折。
  
     For instance, May last year was the first time ever that the ministry officially reported outbreaks of foot-and-mouth, a disease that affects pigs, as well as cattle and sheep. As a member of the international body that monitors the disease, the World Organisation for Animal Health, China is supposed to report any cases of foot-and-mouth as they occur. But even though the disease had often been rampant in China (and has probably never been fully eliminated), reports were treated as state secrets. The data in our table concerning outbreaks mor than 14 years ago come from internal documents, and are probably still officially secret. More recent figures were not available until the government started reporting last May.
   比如去年5月，当局史无前例地公开发布了口蹄疫爆发的消息，这个疾病能感染猪、牛和羊。作为国际监控此类疾病的组织——世界动物卫生组织的一员，中国理应第一时间发布关于口蹄疫的任何疫情。然而尽管这种疫情在中国一度猖獗（且可能从未被彻底消除），疫情报告却一直被视为国家机密。目前在我们案头上的关于14年前疫情暴发的文件是内部资料，可能仍然是政府机密。晚近的数据无从查证直到去年5月政府开始官方发布。
  
   The limits of the ministry's flirtation with openness last year became quickly evident when foot-andmouth broke out near the capital (it had done so before, but the ministry kept quiet about it). For more than two weeks after sealing off the township of Jiuxian, about 50km (30 miles) north of central Beijing, and slaughtering hundreds of its cattle, the authorities said nothing. Only in late May, a few days after reports began to surface in the Hong Kong media, did they finally confirm suspicions.
    当局把玩透明度的限度在去年首都周边地区爆发口蹄疫时展现得淋漓尽致（已有先例，但当局一贯对此三缄其 ）。在封锁了距北京中心约50公里的酒仙城镇超过两周，并宰杀上百牲畜之后，当局仍然守口如瓶。只有到了5月底，在疫情报告浮现于香港媒体几天之后， 当局才出面澄清猜疑。
  
   This secrecy also permeates the ministry's response to bird flu, a disease that scientists fear could mutate and kill large numbers of people. Unfortunately domestic fowl, which have borne the brunt so far of the H5N1 virus's spread, come under the ministry's aegis. Although the ministry has built up what Western experts believe to be a wealth of information on the virus's development, it has been reluctant to share it. World Health Organisation officials were given five live virus samples in 2004, but have been given none since.
    这种隐秘作风在当局处理禽流感时也随处可见，这种疾病被科学家们认为可能变异而危害广大人民的生命。遗憾的是因H5N1病毒蔓延而首当其冲的家禽一直在当局的庇护之下。尽管当局已经掌握了在西方科学家眼里十分可贵且丰富的关于病毒传播的信息，但却不愿意共享出来。 世界卫生组织官员曾在2004年收到5份活病毒样本，但自从那以后就全无下文。
 
   The Ministry of Agriculture first reported an H5N1 outbreak among poultry in January 2004. But in a letter published last week by the New England Journal of Medicine, a group of Chinese scientists said a man subsequently discovered to have been infected with H5N1 had died in Beijing in November 2003.
   农业部最早在2004年报导了家禽中爆发H5N1病毒传染的消息。但是据上周由《新英格兰医学杂志》刊登的一封来信显示，一群中国科学家曾说有人2003年11月在北京因感染H5N1病毒死亡。
  
   The erratic information flow is not entirely the fault of top officials. Peasants and rural governments are reluctant to come clean about anything that might disrupt local economies. In Jiuxian, peasants are still seething about what they say is inadequate compensation for their slaughtered cows. Rumour has it there that smaller outbreaks occurred elsewhere in Beijing at the same time but were covered up, those farmers getting better compensation. Dozens of people who tried to protest in the city centre last year were hauled away by the police and sent home.
    信息传播的偏差并不完全是上级官员的过错。农民和农村政府不愿将任何有碍地方经济发展的实情和盘托出。在酒仙，农民们仍就他们所获得的因宰杀牲畜而造成的经济损失的补偿不当而议论纷纷。传闻说在北京其他地区曾同时爆发小规模的疫情被当局掩盖，而那些农民却获得了更多的补偿。去年许多农民尝试在市中心抗议，但被警察扭送回家。